The mathematical models in the identification of risks for evaluation of investments in the agricultural sector
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Abstract
The administration of risks is a process dedicated to identify the potential events that can affect the organizations, and to manage the risks to provide a reasonable security in the achievement of its objectives; the same one includes the evaluation like one of its fundamental stages. The taking of strategic decisions, in the Cuban companies, is carried out lacking of appreciation to manage the relative uncertainty to a threat of risks. The present investigation analyzes the employment of the financial traditional tools of evaluation of projects, when the main source of information is the opinion of experts, for not having historical data for the application of the probabilities. The blurred mathematics, appropriate for the treatment of the uncertainty and the subjectivity, through the tools Fuzzy and Delphi sustain the applied procedure. The results of their employment in the Cooperative the Credit and Service Piro Guinarnot only confirms the applicability of these methods, but also its advantages on the evaluation carried out by a single person, its adaptability at different levels of the scale as well as its easiness to operate on Excel, essential so that it cannot be applied by a public familiarized with them.
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